Import and Export Statistics 2023 — 18 Key Figures

Trade Growth to Slowin 2023

Import demand is expected to loosen as growth slows in major economies for different reasons. In Europe, the high energy prices are due to the Russia-Ukraine war. 

In the United States, the tightening of monetary policy will hit interest-sensitive spending in areas such as motor vehicles, fixed investment, and housing. China continues to control the COVID-19 outbreaks and production disruptions paired with weak external demand. 

Furthermore, the growing import bills for fertilizer, fuels, and food can lead to food insecurity and debt distress in developing countries. 

The April Forecast of the WTO economist had to rely on simulations to gain reasonable insight into the trade growth, in the absence of hard data about the war’s impact. As the events unfolded, the WTO GDP projections for 2022 turned out to be correct. However, the estimate for 2023 is over the top as energy prices have greatly increased, inflation has become broad, and the war shows no signs of ending. 

Import And Export Statistical Figuresin 2023 That You Should Know

1. The UNCTAD nowcast indicates that the value of global trade will decrease in Q4 2022 for both goods and services.

2. World trade is expected to lose momentum in the second half of 2022 and remains subdued in 2023 as numerous shocks weigh on the global economy.

3. Global trade hit a record $32 trillion in 2022. However, a slowdown that began in the second half of the year is expected to worsen in 2023 as geopolitical tensions and tight financial conditions persist.

4. The World GDP at market exchange rates will increase by 2.8% in 2022 and by 2.3% in 2023

5. Although coincident indicators suggest that trade was still holding up in September, more forward-looking and timely indicators show a more downbeat picture. This indicates that annual trade growth will turn clearly negative in the final months of 2022 and in early 2023 according to Oxford Economics.

6. According to the World Trade Organization, Global trade growth will slow to 1% due to inflation, higher interest rates, weaker demand in the U.S. and Europe, protectionism, and a leveling-out after recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.

7. The Middle East is expected to have the strongest export growth in 2023, at 14.6%, followed by Africa, at 6%. 

8. In 2023, the value of regional exports and imports is expected to grow slightly below this year’s performance at 7.5% and 5.0%, respectively. 

9. In November 2022, Swedish exports of goods increased by 19 percent in value and by 1 percent in volume compared with the same period a year ago.

10. Economic growth forecasts for 2023 are being changed downwards due to high energy prices, rising interest rates, sustained inflation in many economies, and negative global economic spillovers from the war in Ukraine. 

11. Persistently high energy prices and the continued rise in the prices of intermediate inputs and consumer goods are expected to reduce the demand for imports and lead to a decline in the volume of international trade.

12. The record levels of global debt and the increase in interest rates pose huge concerns for debt sustainability.

13. Ports and shipping companies have now adjusted to the challenges brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic. New ships are entering service, and port congestion is being resolved. Freight and cargo rates are still higher than the pre-pandemic averages. However, their trend is downwards.

14. Recently signed agreements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the African Continental Free Trade Area, as well as a number of smaller trade agreements, will commence that will provide some momentum for international trade. 

15. The efforts towards a greener global economy are expected to increase the demand for environmentally sustainable products while reducing the demand for goods with high carbon content and for fossil fuel energy. This shift will reflect in international trade patterns.

16. Risks remain high for global supply chain operations. 

17. China’s plunging shipments in December suggest exports are likely to struggle in early 2023 as the global economy continues to weaken.

18. The US-EU ties will strengthen in 2023 as geopolitical concerns overshadow bilateral trade disagreements.