18 Must-Have Negotiation Skills For Procurement Professionals

China Export Statistics 2023 — 18 Key Figures

China’s export statistics show you the situation of its export as it is the number one exporter in the world. However, is its export growing? 

For this article, we will show you statistical figures that will allow you to know the growth of China’s exports in 2023. Additionally, we will tackle factors that affect its export nowadays. 

After reading this article, you will know if its export is slowing or growing in 2023 and next year. Thus, it will allow you to check for opportunities in China regarding its export. 

China’s COVID-19 Challenges

The recent lockdowns in Shenzhen and Shanghai have reignited the concerns of supply chain disruption as China’s need to control its recent outbreak of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus. 

Many experts expect the effects of the current supply chain disruption on regional shipping networks to be strongly felt in April 2022. Additionally, the closing of road transport networks and some manufacturing operations will remain a source of stress for China. Thus, creating a backlog of shipments that many companies have worked through in April and June of 2022. 

The backlog yielded a higher volume of delayed shipments which hit US and European ports up to the third quarter of 2022. 

If China will not fully abandon its “zero-covid” policies before the end of 2022, the risk of recurrent disruption to China-based logistics will continue to be felt throughout the year. 

Slowing Chinese Exports

An article published by South China Morning Post claims that shipping agents across China are struggling to find cargo during what is normally seen as the peak shipping season ahead of Western Holidays. 

The article says that it is happening due to the rapid fall in expected demand which the articles call “plummeting demand” from Europe and the United States for Chinese imports. 

One of the ways for China to balance the decline in their net exports is to have an initial rise in investment that is driven by rising business inventories. Thus, the contraction in net exports will match the rise of unwanted investment. 

If Chinese exports unexpectedly find themselves unable to sell everything that they produced, the unsold production will accumulate as unwanted inventory. Thus, it is enough to satisfy the identity linking net exports with excess savings, resulting in an increase in investment. 

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The Future is Unknownfor US and China

Neither of the two powerful countries has imposed any new duties since the truce with former President Trump’s trade war in early 2020. However, neither of the two countries has also lifted any trade war tariffs. 

This year, the high US inflation created an opening for President Biden’s Administration to offer at least a partial reset of US-China economic policy. Yet, any political will to seize it was impossible as Beijing’s response to Speaker Pelosi’s Taiwan visit was aggressive. Thus, making the trade conditions worse. 

Additionally, the United States finished implementing legislation to restrict imports from China’s Xinjiang region due to concerns that products were being made out of forced labor.

The Biden Administration has also chosen not to renew many exclusions to the trade war tariffs that were imposed from 2018 to 2019 that had previously been granted. Thus, the economic effect is essentially a tariff increase. 

Today, as commerce is increasingly based on geopolitical blocs, countries like the United States and China may continue to trade but just a lot less than before. Hence, less policy engagement and economic interdependence will carry their own risks, costs, and unknown consequences. 

China’s Export Statistical Figures in 2023 That You Should Know

1. Imports slumped 7.5% in December, which was slightly better than November’s 10.6% drop. Analysts expect China’s reopening to boost imports, but exports will still struggle over the coming quarters.

2. China’s exports fell by 9.9 percent in December compared with a year earlier.

3. China’s oil product exports rose 138.7% year on year in December 2022

4. A chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management said that the weak export growth highlights the importance of boosting domestic demand as the key driver for the economy in 2023.

5. Analysts from Reuters expect China’s economic growth to rebound to 4.9% in 2023 before it stables in 2024. 

6. The director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that China may be able to become a net contributor to the global economy by mid-2023. 

7. Analysts at the Bank of America expect China’s consumption to have a faster and sharper rebound than the rest of the countries in Asia. 

8. China’s plunging shipments in December suggest exports are likely to struggle in early 2023 as the global economy weakens.

9. According to the chief China economist at ING, she estimated both exports and imports could continue to contract in the first half of 2023 from a year earlier but said trade could recover towards the second half when domestic and external economies are expected to improve.

10. According to EIU, a higher annual base of comparison, as well as imminent downturns in major markets, will depress export growth until the third quarter of 2023, even as China’s domestic production picks up from the second quarter.

11. According to Rhodium Group, policy confusion in China is likely to hamper its export performance. 

12. Policy sources said that China is likely to aim for economic growth of at least 5% in 2023 to keep a lid on unemployment.

13. Morgan Stanley, a financial service company, raised its forecast for China’s gross domestic product in 2023 to 5.4% from its previous outlook of 5%.

14. In 2023, China will continue to support the export-oriented industrial network and its domestic supply chains. 

15. Unemployment rates among workers aged 16 to 24 reached nearly 20% earlier this year and are still high at 17%. Thus, the global slowdown is likely to affect employment in China’s export-oriented manufacturing sector. 

16. Fitch Solution said that although China is expected to have a real GDP growth that will accelerate to 5% in 2023, the recovery remains bumpy due to uncertainties around the COVID-19 situation. 

17. Fitch forecasts growth in mainland China to recover partially to 4.1% in 2023, from 2.8% in 2022, both well below pre-pandemic trends.

18. A chief economist at Moody’s Analytics has said that exports will not be a strong driver of economic growth for China due to numerous uncertainties concerning demand in developed economies. 

Frequentlyasked questions

+ What country is the largest exporter of goods in the world?

China is the leading exporter of goods in the world.

+ What is the US-China trade war?

This is when both countries have imposed additional tariffs on goods with each other.

+ What is the largest port in the world?

The Port of Shanghai in China is the largest port in the world. 

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