Wheat Prices Explained

Wheat prices fell by $6 per bushel mark in early January 2024. This marks the commodity’s one-month low which extended its 15% slump from the previous year due to continuous strong supply.

Additionally, the USDA reported that 274 thousand tons of wheat are ready to be exported from the U.S. This triples the amount exported of the previous year. Moreover, Russia’s bumper harvest is expected to yield 90 million tons in the 2023/2024 marketing year.

Furthermore, South America’s plentiful harvest due to fair weather will add to the piling inventory. Thus, reducing wheat prices.

Why are wheat prices fluctuating?

Generally, its prices go along with oil, demand, and supply. However, more underlying factors influence its value in the market. These top the list:

1. Plenty Inventory

Its falling prices in the market stem from the abundant grain output from the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine.  Also, the USDA reported its high production output owing to the improved weather conditions in the country.

Furthermore, Ukraine (a key grain wheat producer) managed to find an alternative export route despite Russian attacks on its ports. Thus, this healthy inventory offsets its demand, affecting wheat prices.

2. Oil Prices

Normally, energy is an important input cost of wheat production. Therefore, any increase in oil prices means additional costs for machinery. Thus, wheat price fluctuation comes after energy prices.

3. Land Productivity

For years, consumers have enjoyed significant wheat production and supply. However, the constant fertilizer application exceeds the required quantity. Therefore, it damages the soil’s natural pH value affecting its productivity and lowering production.

Overall, this results in a production shortage which changes the balance of demand, supply, and wheat market price.

4. Climate Conditions

Wheat is one of the most versatile crops with the ability to thrive in different growing conditions. However, extreme weather conditions such as longer droughts and excess heat diminished its yield and productivity. Thus, it creates a supply gap and disrupts healthy market trading.

5. Geo-Political Factors

The war between Ukraine and Russia had a major impact on the supply and prices of wheat. The two countries’ combined production accounts for nearly a quarter of the global exports. As a result, the conflict between the two countries affected the steady supply in the international market.

Which variables impact the price of wheat?

• Plenty Inventory
• Oil Prices
• Land Productivity
• Climate Conditions
• Geo-Political Factors
• GMOs

Where does wheat come from?

Wheat cultivation started  10,000 years ago in the southeast region of Turkey. Turkish local farmers called it “Einkorn”. It spread from the Middle East to Europe and then to America through farmers migrating from their homeland in search of rich soil to cultivate wheat seeds.

Additionally, milling wheat became common in the 12th century. Furthermore, it became the UK’s most important crop for consumption in the 19th century and this continues until today. Wheat is a versatile grain and it is used in various products. The following are its top products:

1. Bread – It is a primary ingredient in bread and this comes in many varieties, such as whole wheat, white, and sourdough.

2. Pasta – Durum wheat is essential in making various types of pasta like spaghetti, macaroni, and lasagna.

3. Cakes and Pastries – Wheat flour is a key ingredient in cakes, cookies, pastries, and other baked goods.

4. Cereals – Additionally, it is a good diet breakfast such as breakfast cereals and cereal bars.

5. Noodles – In many Asian countries, it is used to make noodles like udon, soba, and ramen.

6. Beer – It finds application in the production of beer and other alcoholic beverages.

7. Biofuel – Apart from its extensive uses in the food and beverage industry, wheat is also a feedstock in producing biofuel.

Presently, the majority of our snack delights and sauces are by-products of wheat from China, India, Russia, the United States, and Canada.

What is the future price of wheat?

The bumper wheat harvest from its top-producing countries openly causes its downward prices in the global market. Adding pressure on the production side is the unusually high fertilizer costs that farmers need to cover. Thus, wheat prices show bearish in the market at the moment.

Moreover, China will play an important part as the country is the largest producer and consumer of wheat. However, its present economic issue provides uncertain marketability of the commodity. Furthermore, the conflict in Ukraine and Gaza will certainly affect the global supply chain, leading to wheat price fluctuation.

Overall, market analysts predicted wheat prices will have a modest run at $15.26/bushel in 2027.