Plum Prices Explained

Plum production and its prices are on a wild ride as top-growing countries show different outputs that will likely determine the commodity’s domestic and international prices.

According to a recent USDA report, plum production in the United States is expected to be 5% lower this year compared to the previous year. This is due to several factors like unfavorable weather conditions and increased pest pressure that lessen the country’s overall output.

However, the Spanish plum harvest shows extraordinary quality which promises marketability to producers as the country’s demand remains stable. Additionally, Spain’s harvest rate moves at a faster rate as the country hopes to replenish the early end of the Chilean plum season. Here, we’ll explore the top 4 reasons for these varying prices.

Why are plum prices fluctuating?

1. Production Seesaw

The California Farm Bureau Federation report paints a grim picture, with plum production expected to plummet by 12% this year as scorching summer soured the country’s production output. Furthermore, the fluctuating fertilizer prices contribute to the rising production costs that highly affect plum prices.

2. Cost Crunch

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA highlights a 15% increase in overall fruit production costs last year. Fuel and global supply price hikes due to increased freight fees as geopolitical tension escalates in the Red Sea further inflate plum shipping costs. As a result, it impacted countries that rely on overseas plums like Japan and the United Kingdom.

3. Consumer Purchasing Activity

The Rabobank Fruit and Vegetable Sector report reveals a shift in consumer preferences towards berries and citrus due to their perceived health benefits and vibrant colors. Therefore, this change affected retail plum prices. Furthermore, global inflation influences consumer confidence greatly as people become more conservative in their spending.

4. Global Gambles

The World Bank Food Price Index shows a 10% increase in global fruit prices driven by geopolitical instability and disruptions in international trade. Additionally, the ongoing war in Ukraine and Israel and the heightened effects of global warming have ripple effects across the entire food supply chain, including local plum prices.

Which variables impact the price of plums?

• Production Seesaw
• Cost Crunch
• Consumer Purchasing Activity
• Global Gambles
• Input Costs

Where does plum come from?

Historians argue that plum is one of the first fruits cultivated by humans, with origins in Eastern Europe and China. Presently, China is the largest plum producer followed closely by Romania, Serbia, the United States, and Turkey. Also, planting plums depends on their variety as it is grown from seeds, grafted into rootstocks, or budded into existing trees. Typically, plum blossoms during spring and fruits in summer.

Harvesting methods vary according to the scale of operation. For instance, smaller orchards handpick fresh plums to ensure gentle handling and optimal selection, while larger farms use mechanical shakers to gather the fruits.

What are the uses of plums?

Generally, plum plays an important part in making pastries. However, its role extends beyond the dessert plate as here are the top industry uses of plum:

1. Food and Beverage – From jams, jellies, juices, wines, and liquors, plums add flavor and nutrients to countless edible creations.

2. Nutraceuticals – The high levels of antioxidants and dietary fiber in plums make them popular ingredients in health supplements and functional foods.

3. Cosmetics – Plum extracts are prized for their anti-aging and skin-soothing properties, often finding their way into creams, lotions, and other beauty products.

4. Industrial Uses – Plum pits are used for activated charcoal production. Additionally, its wood finds applications in furniture making and even musical instruments.

What is the future price of plum?

Generally, the major price mover of plum is the enduring climate change that made headlines in the 21st century. Additionally, frequent pest infestations will diminish crop yield and affect its availability and prices in the market. However, new farming practices and varieties help expand its market. For instance, the growing green plum exports in the Middle East and Europe open new opportunities for growers to cash in profits.

Furthermore, the shifting diet preferences among consumers and emerging demand from developing countries with growing middle classes will likely put upward pressure on global plum prices. Here are the 2030 price estimates of plums according to 3 scenarios:

Optimistic Scenario – Advancements in agricultural technology like climate-controlled greenhouses and vertical farming will stabilize or even increase plum yields. Moreover, improved logistics and automation can lower transportation costs. Thus, in major markets, plum prices will settle around $2-$3 per pound.

Neutral Scenario – If current trends like climate change and resource scarcity continue, plum prices remain relatively stable in the range of $3-$5 per pound. This scenario assumes a balancing act between moderate yield fluctuations and modest increases in production costs.

Pessimistic Scenario – Significant disruptions like extreme weather events or pest outbreaks will largely impact global production, causing a large plum price hike. Thus plum value will reach $5-$7 per pound, driven by limited supply and heightened demand.