Robusta Prices Explained

Robusta prices scored 0.6% increase in its historic trading activity as Vietnam (the world’s largest Robusta coffee producer) suffered from adverse weather. Flooded coffee fields delayed the harvest, making exports fell to 11.6%.

Additionally, the impact of dry El Niño leads to longer-term crop damage in South and Central America as Brazil’s biggest coffee growing region experienced below-average rainfall. These factors all contribute to the soaring Robusta prices across regional markets. 

Why are Robusta prices fluctuating?

1. Weather Conditions

Weather is the main price driver for agricultural commodities. Extreme weather changes, longer droughts, and deadly typhoons greatly affect Robusta coffee growers in Vietnam.

Its coffee production was down by 13.1% this year. A proof that the increasing climate change greatly impacts Robusta prices.

2. Supply and Demand

Robusta’s value in the market goes hand in hand with Arabica. When Arabica’s demand goes high, so does Robusta’s market value. Conversely, when Arabica’s demand turns low, it also reflects Robusta’s price. 

3. Competition from Other Beverages

Coffee faces tight beverage competition in the market. These are tea, energy drinks, soda, and other improved drink formulations. Coupled with changing consumer preferences, this also drives coffee price fluctuation.

Which variables impact the price of Robusta?

• Weather Conditions
• Supply and Demand
• Competition from other Beverages
• Currency Exchange Rates
• Trade Policies and Regulations
• Political Instability

Where does Robusta come from?

Coffee canephora is the scientific name of Robusta and this coffee variety originates in central and western sub-Saharan Africa. Robusta is the second most popular coffee variety in the world.

Mainly from the word “robust”, this coffee spawns rapidly around the world as it is resistant to pests and highly productive compared to Arabica. Therefore, it has a better growing capability than its counterpart, Arabica.

Generally, it takes 2-3 years before Robusta produces its first batch of flowers. Its coffee flowers are white and give off a pleasant jasmine scent.

After it reaches its blooming stage, the flowers will wither, and a month later, young coffee fruits form, grow, and gradually turn red.

The coffee harvest season in Vietnam spans from November through January. Vietnamese coffee growers thoroughly harvest their coffee by hand-picking which goes in two ways: picking through (all branches) and picking selectively.

Normally, Robusta has an earthy, grainy-like, and bitter flavor, with a peanut-like aftertaste. Once brewed, it smelled like molasses. Top Robusta coffee recipes are Espresso, French Press, Vietnamese-style coffee, Moka pot, and Cold brew.

Today, Vietnam is the top Robusta producer in the world with an average of 30 million kilograms of bags yearly production. Indonesia, India, Brazil, Uganda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo follow distantly.

What is the future price of Robusta?

Tight supply and low inventories made Robusta prices bullish in the market. The dry weather in Brazil damaged the country’s crops, particularly in the Minas Gerais region which only received 40.8 mm of rainfall in the past week contributed to its decreasing output.

Conversely, coffee roasters avoided purchasing Vietnamese beans due to the surging shipping fee costs because of longer delivery times as commercial vessels opted to detour to avoid Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Additionally, the country’s output continuously decreases as changing weather patterns affect coffee yeilds. 

Overall,  Robusta prices are forecasted to be positive in the coming years due to the rising production costs and growing demand from coffee consumers. Thus, its prices will range from $3.00-$3.50 per pound in 2030.