Canola Prices Explained

Canola prices remain on modest levels after making strong gains in trading charts. However, a low-level inventory of Canadian canola exports might create some potential tailwinds on the commodity. On the other side, oilseed market experts expressed concerns as palm oil imports into the U.S. for renewable diesel production consistently grow. Thus, posing as a price stabilizer for canola market potential and prices.

Why are canola prices fluctuating?

1. Abundant Supply

The drought-stricken countries such as Canada and the USA bounced back their canola production after the hot weather ravaged their plantation. Additionally, the plenty of Brazilian supply adds to the global inventory.

Furthermore, the easing of soybean prices and the piling of oilseeds and grains in the European market contribute to the decline of canola prices. Top consumers of canola are the United States and the EU:

• The European Union uses canola and rapeseed for their biodiesel production.
• The United States buys canola for its biofuel production and canola meal for its livestock and poultry.

However, the abundant supply of canola and cheaper soybean prices in the European market; and the favorable weather conditions in the US make these huge consumers leverage available alternatives and local production respectively.

2. Canadian Market

Canola is Canada’s number one oilseed crop. On average, the country produces about 20 million tons, covering most of the global supply. Weather systems such as extremely hot or cold temperatures can directly affect the country’s production and ultimately, canola prices.

Additionally, the country is the fifth-largest producer of wheat. If farmers deem wheat as more profitable than canola, then it can hurt its yearly output.

3. Alternative Crops

Canola competes with other oilseed and oil meals such as soybean, rapeseed, castor, linseed, and cottonseed. The demand, availability, and prices of any of these oilseeds will affect the value of the group, including canola prices. For instance, the decrease in soybean oil prices is not helpful in canola’s marketability as consumers favor naturally produced commodities rather than GMOs.

4. Emerging Markets

Rising market countries such as China, Mexico, and Pakistan are good canola prospects as their import records significantly increase as the countries’ consumption gradually grows over the years.

Both Mexico and Pakistan use canola oil for cooking purposes. On the other hand, China imports canola to cover its local rapeseed production deficit. Furthermore, the countries’ plan to follow biodiesel production will drive up its prices.

Which variables impact the price of canola?

• Abundant Supply
• Canadian Market
• Alternative Crops
• Emerging Markets
• Government Policies

Where does canola come from?

A relatively hybrid crop from rapeseed, canola’s introduction was made possible thanks to the works of two Canadian researchers, Baldur Stefansson and Richard Keith Downey.

Due to rapeseed’s high levels of erucic acid and glucosinolates, Stefansson and Downey develop a variety of rapeseed with low levels of these harmful substances. The processing of canola oil involves the following steps:

1. Cleaning – The canola seeds are cleaned to remove any dirt or debris.

2. Crushing – Using the oil-pressed machines, the seeds are crushed to break them open and release the oil.

3. Extraction – The oil extraction can be done in various processes:

Mechanical expelling – The simplest method of oil extraction. It uses a screw press to squeeze the oil out of the crushed seeds. Mechanical expelling is a relatively gentle process that produces high-quality oil.

Solvent extraction – A more efficient technique. It uses a solvent such as hexane to dissolve the oil. Though it’s more efficient, it produces lower oil quality.

Supercritical fluid extraction – A newer procedure. It involves using a supercritical fluid such as carbon dioxide to extract the oil from the seeds. Apart from its efficiency, this step yields high-quality oil.

4. Refining – The refining stage includes removing any impurities such as fatty acids, bitter taste, and color pigments to improve its oil quality.

5. Packaging – The refined oil is packaged for sale to consumers.

Nowadays, this hybrid commodity tops as the most favored cooking oil and baking oil. Additionally, some countries such as the US and the EU use canola to boost biodiesel production and we have Canada, China, India, Germany, and France to thank for.

What is the future price of canola?

Canola’s value is projected to remain modestly elevated due to the push and pull of its oilseeds and grain counterpart’s demand and supply. Additionally, the increasing diversification of plant-based oil applications influences to its fluctuating prices. 

However, the ambitious plan of Western countries to curb fuel prices by increasing feedstock sources for biofuel production will contribute to canola’s price variations. For instance, the U.S. Department of Energy Administration (EIA) uses nearly 60% of canola oil in its renewable diesel production. The organization reported that it will likely raise its canola oil use in biofuels due to higher usage levels in the country.

Overall, the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association (COPA) forecasted a turbulent canola market in the coming years as its demand will account for 23% in 2030. Thus, market analysts expected an elevated canola price of $789 per metric ton in 2029.