Heating Oil Prices Explained

Heating oil prices extended their bearish run as plenty of supply and a weaker demand outlook dominated the market.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration report showed that the country’s stockpile surged by 5.8 million barrels (almost three times the expected increase). Also, the heating oil inventory added 0.497 million barrels to its stock. On the demand side, the economic slowdown in China and North America signaled low inquiries, putting pressure on heating oil prices.

Why are heating oil prices fluctuating?

1. Varying Supply and Demand

The sharp increase in heating oil demand will likely cause supply depletion and refineries can’t keep up with the growing need, prompting production and prices to soar high.

2. Crude Oil Prices

Since heating oil is a byproduct of crude oil, its supply availability depends on its production which then transcends to its market price.

3. Weather Conditions

Similar to propane, heating oil is also a fuel source for heating homes and buildings. As a result, its demand goes high, particularly in winter when the supply chain is also low because oil production is slow due to the freezing temperature. Thus, a low supply and high demand are the perfect combination for a price spike.

4. Distribution and Delivery Cost

Most countries rely heavily on crude oil import and transportation of these products consumes lots of labor and resources. Therefore, companies and logistics increased market value to keep their services and livelihood running.

5. OPEC

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ( OPEC ) is a group of countries and companies that regulate crude oil supply globally. Therefore, this organization has the power to influence the heating oil supply and prices in the market.

6. Political Tensions in Oil-Producing Countries

War and social unrest greatly impact oil price fluctuation as it decreases oil production and transportation capacity not to mention closed borders and sanctions.

Which variables impact the price of heating oil?

• Varying Supply and Demand
• Crude Oil Prices
• Weather Conditions
• Distribution and Delivery Cost
• OPEC
• Political in Oil-Producing Countries
• Exchange Rates
• Government Policies

Where does heating oil come from?

Generally, heating oil is a type of fuel oil from crude oil. It undergoes a series of processes where its end-products are gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, and heating oil. Fractional distillation is the process of producing heating oil where crude oil is heated to separate it into different components according to boiling points.

The first recorded use of heating oil was in the 1840s in the U.S. Additionally, to further streamline its usage, M.A. Fessler modified Benjamin Franklin’s stove into an oil burner which provides heat in residential homes and buildings during winter months nowadays. Furthermore, recycled vegetable oils and animal fats are also good sources of heating oil, which is called biodiesel.

Generally, heating oil is used to heat homes and businesses.

Its processing begins with the distillation of crude oil. Distillation is a process of heating crude oil to a high temperature, which causes the different hydrocarbons in the oil to vaporize at different rates.

The lighter hydrocarbons such as gasoline and jet fuel vaporize first, while the heavier hydrocarbons such as heating oil and diesel fuel, vaporize later.

Then, the vapors from the distillation process are condensed into liquid form. The different fractions of crude oil are collected separately and further processed to produce the desired products. Additionally, it is processed to remove impurities and improve its quality.

Today, heating oil comes from these top-producing countries such as the United States, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Canada, and China.

What is the future price of heating oil?

Generally, late fall and winter months are heating oil seasons. It is when demand and price are at their peak due to colder temperatures. Its season usually begins in the midweek or late September and lasts until April. However, this depends on the country’s location and climate.

Naturally, these seasons experience fluctuating heating oil prices. However, the unusually warm weather system due to global warming causes a downward demand for this commodity. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that distillate stockpiles fell by 510 thousand barrels due to the slowing need for heating oil, signaling that the commodity’s price hike will not last longer.

Also, the increasing oil inquiries and imports from Egypt due to the country’s persistent power cuts because of aging coal generators will keep heating oil prices in a marginal trend.

On the supply side, OPEC+ consistent supply cuts will offset the cooling demand of the commodity, highlighting price stability in the long run.  Overall, heating oil prices thread on its limited supply, rising demand, and top industry applications. Thus, its price will remain at $5.50 per gallon in 2030.