Mustard Prices Explained

Mustard prices benefit from the growing edible industry across the global market. The surge in prices is supported by the limited output of key producing countries due to the changing weather patterns. 

The lack of government subsidies to Nepalese farmers made local growers switch to weather-resistant plants. The current war in Ukraine, tariffs on Russian mustard exports, and the Red Sea conflict choked the supply chain. This resulted in the continuous rise of mustard prices in downstream consumption. 

Why are mustard prices fluctuating?

1. Weather Conditions

Unfavorable weather conditions like droughts or excessive rainfall affect mustard yields. Thus, the effect of various weather-related factors leads to mustard price fluctuation.

For instance, a severe drought led to a significant 50% decline in mustard seed harvest in Canada (the world’s largest producer of brown mustard seeds). Additionally, French local mustard seed output suffered the effects of global warming which affected the country’s domestic mustard prices.

2. Conflict Between Russia and Ukraine

These countries are two of the world’s largest producers of mustard seeds. However, the ongoing political crisis in the area lessened their crop harvests, disrupted supply chains, and increased the cost of exporting mustard. Additionally, problems with the worldwide supply chain affected the food packaging industry which influenced mustard prices.

3. Mustard Substitutes

Food economists cited that the demand for regular mustard will decrease if consumers become more reliant on substitutes, such as other spreads, sauces, horseradish, and wasabi. Thus, this shift in customer tastes results in a surplus of mustard on the market,  driving its prices down.

4. Import and Export

The United States is consistently the top importer of mustard seeds, while Canada is the top exporter worldwide. The higher price of mustard seeds from Canada is due to related taxes and charges that are paid throughout the exportation procedure.

Overall, these added expenditures drive up the overall costs for mustard producers and increase the risk of shortages and price increases in the U.S. mustard market, particularly if there are disruptions in Canada’s mustard seed supply.

Which variables impact the price of mustard?

• Weather Conditions
• Conflict between Russia and Ukraine
• Mustard Substitutes
• Import and Export
• Fertilizer Costs
• Fuel Costs

Where does mustard come from?

Mustard is a condiment that comes from the seeds of the mustard plant After crushing and mixing with vinegar, water, and various seasonings, these little seeds become a delectable paste or sauce.

Also, the seeds of the mustard plant have a diameter of around 1 to 2 millimeters and range in color from yellow-white to black. Here’s a general overview of  mustard’s planting, harvesting, and processing:

1. Harvesting and Cleaning – Mustard seeds are extracted from fully grown plants and cleaned to remove dust and other contaminants.

2. Drying – To reduce moisture levels and increase the seeds’ storage durability, the collected seeds go through a drying procedure that is dependent on their moisture content.

3. Grinding – After cleaning and drying, mustard seeds are ground to produce mustard powder. Additionally, the intensity of the grinding process varies, resulting in either fine or coarse mustard powder based on the desired final product.

4. Mixing with Liquid – Mixing the ground mustard powder with liquids such as water, vinegar, wine, or a combination of those will create a paste.

5. Addition of Salt and Other Ingredients – To improve flavor and aid in preservation, salt is added to mustard paste. Additionally, sugar, honey, herbs, spices, or even fruits are added to create distinct variations with unique flavors.

6. Packaging – The produced mustard is finally packaged in jars, bottles, squeeze bottles, and sachets before transportation.

7. Quality Control – To guarantee that the mustard meets certain requirements for taste, texture, and shelf life, quality control procedures are continuously implemented throughout the entire process.

8. Distribution and Consumption – Then, it is shipped to customers and retailers to be used as a condiment or ingredient in various recipes.

What are the uses of mustard?

Mustard seeds are high in fiber, erucic acid, palmitic acid, tocopherols, tocotrienols, carotene, oryzanol, squalene, and thiamine. In addition to its culinary uses, mustard has a wide range of industrial applications. These are the following:

1. Food Processing – Mustard is used as an ingredient in the food business to provide taste and seasoning to numerous goods such as marinades, pickles, dressings, and sauces.

2. Oil Production – Mustard oil is a raw material with various applications including lubricants, and biodiesel. Additionally, it is a basic ingredient in the soap and cosmetics industries.

3. Mustard Powder Production – Grinded seeds are used to make mustard powder and it is used in food applications as an ingredient for snack foods, processed meats, and flavorings.

4. Pharmaceuticals – Mustard oil has been used in traditional medicine. Additionally, the pharmaceutical industry uses it as it’s rich in chemicals that show antibacterial and anti-inflammatory qualities.

5. Biofumigation – The process occurs when mustard plants are incorporated into the soil and release biofumigant chemicals. This farming method is used to control illnesses and pests that are transmitted through the soil.

What is the future price of mustard?

Climate change affected mustard production in key producing countries like India and Canada. Rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, and frequent attacks of pests and diseases led to reduced yields and lower-quality crops. For example, India’s mustard crops are particularly vulnerable to frost and heat stress, drastically affecting the country’s export output.

On the supply side, tariffs imposed by Western countries on Russian exports disrupted the global mustard market. The European Union has set prohibitive tariffs on Russian grain products (including mustard) to cut off revenue streams for funded conflicts. This led to a decrease in the availability of Russian mustard in the global market, prompting buyers to seek alternative sources.

Also, the rise of vegan meats fuels increased interest in mustard as a flavor enhancer in fast food products. Companies like Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods are incorporating mustard into their recipes to appeal to health-conscious consumers, boosting mustard demand.

Additionally, the growing utilization of mustard flour in various food products opened new profitable markets as it is used in baking, snacks, and even pet foods.

Overall, the price of mustard will be $2.17 per kilogram in 2028 and its market value is expected to reach $8.60 billion in the same year growing at a CAGR of 5.80%.