Urals Oil Prices Explained

Urals oil prices fall below $70 per barrel after the latest US sanction targets major Russian oil transporters (Surgut and Gazpromneft). The new penalty disrupted traditional export routes and reduced supply volumes. As a result, Russian producers adjusted their pricing strategies to manage the challenge.

Despite price capping, Russia will rely on its uncompromising oil trade market (China and India). India imported an average of 1.76 million barrels per day. China still holds the primary oil importer from Russia despite the declining demand from the country due to deflation.

Why are Urals oil prices fluctuating?

1. Global Supply and Demand

The global supply and demand movement determines crude oil variation prices in the market. Generally, an increase in demand and low supply highly influence its price to spike, and an abundant supply and normal demand will cause its price to decrease.

2. Dollar Rates

The U.S. dollar exchange rate and crude oil prices have a long and complicated relationship. A strong US dollar in the market pushes crude oil prices as oil-importing countries find it hard to purchase crude oil quoted in dollars. Conversely, a weaker US dollar will drive crude oil prices as it is relatively cheap to purchase the product.

3. War on Both Sides

As the global energy market slowly adjusts to the supply cuts by OPEC+ and the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war, another conflict broke out in the Middle East (Israel-Palestinian war).

As a result, global fuel prices jumped 4% after Hamas attacked Israel. While the country doesn’t have significant oil reserves, the conflict escalated across neighboring countries which are major oil players in the global supply chain. Thus, affecting Urals oil supply and prices.

4. Economic Conditions

Every country’s purchasing power depends on its economic stability. A healthy economy will likely demand and purchase more oil but a country that struggles in recession will decrease its oil demand. Therefore, every country’s oil demand is a product of its economic stability which impacts oil prices.

5. Marketing Shift

After a series of sanctions, Russia (the top Urals oil producer in the world) shifted its oil market from the West to Asian consumers.

This proved to be effective as the cheaper Russian oil made its way to the Indian and Chinese markets (averaging 70 million tons and 100 million tons respectively). Thus, the discounted Urals oil prices remain marketable to these countries.

Which variables impact the price of Urals oil?

• Global Supply and Demand
  
• Currency Exchange Rates
• War on Both Sides
• Economic Conditions
• Marketing Shift

Where does Urals oil come from?

Russia produces the main Urals oil globally. Urals oil is extracted from oil fields in Khanty-Mansiysk and Yamalo-Nenets, the Western Siberian region in Russia.

The produced crude oil from these fields is transported through pipelines to the Baltic Sea which is then loaded into tankers for exports.

Urals oil exports to Western Europe, Asia, and Africa started in the 1950s, and in the 1960s. However, its international trading officially grew in the mid-20th century after the growth of Russia’s oil industry and the rapid global demand for oil.

Apart from Russia’s 13% Urals oil total production, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Belarus also produce a significant amount of their reserves globally. Their export markets are China, the United States, and Europe.

What is the future price of Urals oil?

The G-7’s oil price capping and banning of Urals oil in the Western trade proved to be “less effective” as Moscow successfully re-routed its oil business from the West to the Asian market.

Chinese, Indian, and Turkish refineries took advantage of the cheaper Urals oil as Moscow was forced to sell at a lower price. Therefore, Russia still managed to recover its 160,000-barrel offset output. However, the S&P Global Commodity Insights cited fuel oversupply and growing stocks in 2025. As a result, some OPEC+ countries plan to reduce oil quota (an average of 900,000 barrels per day).

Experts forecasted that prices will ease in the second quarter of 2025 as Russia finds ways to deal with new sanctions. Adding pressure is the end of Russia’s gas exports to Europe after Ukraine stops its transit on January 1, 2025 (contract expiration date).

Overall, the 2030 Urals oil price will be $40 bbl but this is subject to further study and monitoring as oil value is always volatile.