Corn Prices Explained

Corn prices are down as the bumper harvest from the U.S., Columbia, and Portugal crowded the market, leading to lower speculative trading and technical selling. Adding pressure on the supply side is the increased USDA corn production by 1.18 million tons, the largest in six years.

Also, the total production among key exporters (the U.S., Argentina, Brazil, and Ukraine) rose to 589.9 million tons and the stocks are 58 million tons, fearing surplus supply in the market. However, grain expert economists are hopeful of a corn rebound as ethanol margins are increasing.

Why are corn prices fluctuating?

1. Weather Conditions

Climate plays a crucial role in influencing corn production and market dynamics. Adverse weather conditions such as heatwaves and drought can significantly impact corn condition ratings, indicating the health and potential yield of the crop.

These conditions often lead to a decrease in the percentage of corn rated as good or excellent, subsequently driving up corn prices in the market. Thus, climate stands as a vital factor shaping both corn production and its market pricing.

2. Geopolitical Issues

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine increased the tension in the global grain supply since a large proportion of domestic corn comes from Ukraine. This geopolitical war caused market concerns about the import of corn in the later period.

Ukrainian corn scarcity had a domino effect on the biofuel industries which rely largely on corn as a feedstock or input. Additionally, the increasing cost of corn as a result of the shortfall increased production expenses for various sectors, reducing their profitability.

Overall, corn and wheat products are not the only ones affected by the war between Russia and Ukraine; almost all raw materials, especially oil and gasoline.

3. Trade Policy

Corn global trade is subject to the trade policies of major exporting and importing countries. These policies have a notable impact on market dynamics. Measures such as tariffs, quotas, subsidies, or sanctions can shift trade flows, ultimately leading to surpluses or deficits in various regions.

These alterations in trade patterns directly influence the supply and demand balance, ultimately influencing price levels within the corn market. Additionally, it emphasizes the importance of trade policies and their role in shaping the global corn trade landscape.

Ukraine is a major exporter of wheat and other items, such as sunflower oil, while Russia is a key producer of wheat and many of the chemicals used in fertilizer. Thus, leading futures traders to bet that higher input costs and more demand for corn will drive up its prices.

Which variables impact the price of corn?

• Weather Conditions
• Geopolitical Issues
• Trade Policy
• Currency Exchange Rates
• Global Economic Condition
• Government Policies

Where does corn come from?

Corn or maize is believed to be cultivated around 9,000 years ago in Mexico, its place of origin. The Native Americans planted, spread, and modified corn varieties across the U.S.

It further spread around the world through explorers, traders, and immigrants. For example, Christopher Columbus brought corn to Europe from the Americas in 1492.

Additionally, corn is adaptable and one of the most widely consumed and traded goods. Furthermore, corn is an important component in making biofuel. Corns have different characteristics and here are the most common type of varieties.

1. Dent Corn – Widely grown in the U.S. It gets its name because of the ”dent” that forms after the kernel dries.

2. Sweet Corn – This corn is harvested when the kernels are soft and full of sugar. This variety comes from Central or South America.

3. Popcorn – This variety originated in Mexico or Central America. When heated, the moisture inside the kernel turns to steam causing it to explode into a fluffy white snack.

4. Flour Corn – This Mexican corn has a soft and starchy texture which makes it a perfect ingredient for traditional Mexican foods such as tortillas and tamales.

5. Flint Corn – This North American Corn has a hard, glassy, and starchy exterior. Commonly used in autumn decorations such as corn husk dolls.

Presently, the U.S. is the top producer and exporter of corn followed closely by China, Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina.

What is the future price of corn?

Corn prices largely rely on fluctuating weather patterns, determining its availability and value in the market. Economic dynamics and end-user industries also hold power over their prices. For instance, purchase agreements between China and Brazil will change the U.S. export market. China’s supplier diversification allows profit from other countries as the country’s livestock industry grows.

Brazilian corn output grows significantly and the country will soon outpace the U.S. However, it can tighten the corn supply as the country leverages the commodity for ethanol production. Its ethanol yields increase by 3.77% yearly. This mirrors India’s corn market.

Historically, India has been the top corn exporter across South and Southeast Asia. The country’s National Policy on Biofuels led to the spiking domestic demand for corn. Ethanol manufacturers’ shift to corn alternatives translated to a 10% increase in feed demand and a reduced 86% in corn exports.

Thus, the need for ethanol will fuel the commodity market as the push for renewable energy sources is steady. The estimated corn price in 2030 will be around $3.80-$4.10 per bushel.