Egg Prices Explained

As you can see egg prices are fluctuating. But why is that? And is there a way to predict the price of an egg?

Why are egg prices fluctuating?

The fluctuating egg prices rely heavily on various factors. Listed below are the top reasons:

1. Seasonal Changes

Throughout the year, egg prices fluctuate according to seasons, supply, and demand. Egg production is low in winter months due to shorter days. As a result egg demand is high which causes a price hike. 

Late spring and early summer months are known for their reasonable record price. The warm weather and long days cause an increase in egg production. Keeping up with the egg’s nutritional efficiency, poultry owners are prompted to sell their produce at a lower price. 

2. Consumer Demand

The rise of fad diets greatly plays a big impact on egg prices. Consumers who are fans of low-carb or high-protein diets tend to increase their egg demand as part of their meal routine.

3. Production Costs

Labor, feed, transportation, enriched cages, and other factors shape the cost of egg prices in the US. Apart from consumer demand, producers’ profitability and productivity depend on production costs.

4. Disease Outbreaks

Salmonella, avian influenza, and other disease outbreaks are big players in egg prices.

These frequent outbreaks push the international trading market to tighten its trading law under health and safety protocols. Therefore, making exportation and importation even tighter. 

5. International Trade

The rule of importation and exportation. Production shortages from top egg export countries will possibly lessen their international trade to suffice their internal demand. Ultimately, this impacts the steady flow of exportation and importation. 

Which variables impact the price of eggs?

• Supply and Demand
• Production Costs ( Labor, Feed, and Transportation )
• Seasonal Changes
• Government Regulations
• International Trade
• Disease Outbreaks

Where does the egg come from?

Eggs come from a variety of sources:

Commercial Egg Farms are the largest source of eggs in the US. Producing mostly from the Midwest and Southwest regions in the US, about 338.6 million eggs per day in 2020 came from commercial egg farms according to the USDA report. 

The majority of their produce is sold for consumption and processing for food manufacturing industries. 

Backyard Flocks

These are owned by small farm owners geographically located in suburban and rural areas throughout the US. These are small flocks of chickens kept in a coop for family or personal consumption.

Proper handling and safety are highly recommended to avoid food illnesses or the spreading of diseases.

Specialty Farms

On a much smaller scale compared to commercial egg farms, specialty farms are known for specific breeding reasons like free-range, non-GMO, organic, and other health purposes. Their products are sold in farmers’ markets, groceries, and local restaurants.

What is the future price of eggs?

The future of egg prices is likely to go high in the coming years. Here are the top driving factors for this:

1. Recurring Avian Influenza

The recurring Avian influenza disease will always restrict egg production from an infected country and therefore drive prices in the global market because of low supply.

2. Easter Holiday

This yearly global celebration pushes egg prices to their peak because of the spring holiday egg hunt and baking activities.

3. Changing Weather

Freezing and hot weather temperatures determine egg value in the market as the quality and availability of feed depend on fair weather.

4. Diet Dynamics

People’s diet also plays an important part in egg demand and prices in the market. As everyone wants to stay fit, their diet list and purchasing attitude change.

5. Population

The main customers and consumers of all products and services. The population in 2030 is expected to be 8.6 billion according to the United Nations report.

Overall, these combined current factors will drive egg production to 30.5 billion in 2030 with an average egg price of $3.50 per tray. This of course is subject to changes according to internal and external factors.