Orange Juice Prices Explained

Orange juice prices showed tailwinds in the market as it started 2024 with a 2.54% increase. The bad weather and nasty citrus disease dampened its supply which translated to higher retail prices at grocery stores. 

Why are orange juice prices fluctuating?

Orange juice prices in the market steadily increase due to present and recurring reasons. Here are the top factors:

1. Climate Change and Diseases

The alternating severe drought and excessive rainfall greatly affect productivity in orange-producing countries.

For instance, hurricanes and late freezes badly damaged orange trees’ productivity in Florida. Additionally, citrus greening ( the most serious citrus plant disease in the world ) continuously affects crop yield, leading to a 51% decline in American oranges. Overall, this causes domestic low supply and soaring orange juice prices in the market.

2. Inflation

Price inflation still exhibited an upward trend despite easing in the late quarters of 2023. The food sector experienced even higher rates due to global supply chain disruptions and conflicts in major countries. As a result, the orange juice price increase hovers around 10% in Q4 of 2023.

3. Concentrated Orange Juice (FCOJ) Prices

FCOJ is a frozen orange juice concentrate. This ingredient is important in making orange juice. Any price fluctuations in FCOJ production inputs such as orange oil and orange pulp will have a direct impact on orange juice prices.

4. Consumer Trends

Changes in consumer preferences stem from health concerns. Ultimately, this purchasing attitude shapes the shifting demand and prices of orange juice in the market.

Which variables impact the price of orange juice?

• Climate Change and Diseases
• Inflation
• Concentrated Orange Juice (FCOJ) Prices
• Consumer Trends
• Government Policies
• Exchange Rates

Where does orange juice come from?

Sweet orange trees originated in the tropical regions of Asia, specifically in the eastern region of Assam in India, northern Myanmar, and western Yunnan in China.

Arab empire expansion and trade helped the orange tree variety to reach Europe and other countries in the world. Additionally, the Spanish explorers introduced this variety to the Americas in the 15 century. Furthermore, British colonizers brought this citrus fruit to Australia in the 18th century.

Considered as not palatable because of its taste, some herbalists used orange fruit as a medicinal syrup. For example, the British Royal Navy used orange to prevent scurvy, a disease caused by a lack of vitamin C.

Overall, the majority of this refreshing drink comes from the top citrus producer in the world with Brazil sitting on the number one spot because of its yearly 1.3 million tons of orange juice production. The United States, Mexico, the European Union, and South Africa follow distantly.

What is the future price of orange juice?

Generally, orange is a winter fruit but its growing and harvesting season depend on the country’s location and weather conditions. Typically, it starts bearing fruit after 2 to 5 years of growth and will continue producing for 8 to 15 years depending on the tree variety.

Brazil’s citrus season starts in mid-June and ends in mid-December. Its peak season occurs from July to September. The United States season typically starts from October to June, with three months of peak season in January, February, and March.

Overall, due to its market volatility and the decreasing crop yield because of extreme weather disturbances, experts see a bullish market with a $10 price by 2027.