Lamb Prices Explained

In 2025, global lamb prices have shown significant variability. In the United States, wholesale lamb prices ranged from $5.61 to $5.89 per kilogram ($2.55–2.67 per pound) during the first four months of the year, while steadily increasing to $6.08 in May and $6.4 in June.

In Australia, the National Trade Lamb Indicator reached 1,195¢ per kilogram ($11.95 per kilogram) in June 2025. These price differences reflect regional supply and demand. In the U.S., factors such as domestic production levels and consumer preferences influence prices.

In Australia, strong export demand from the Middle East and Asia drives prices.

Why are Lamb Prices Fluctuating?

1. Climate & Weather Events
Droughts and floods have reduced lamb production in key regions. Lower supply has increased prices.

2. Supply Overshoot & Inventory Stocks
Overproduction in previous years increased inventory levels. High inventory has temporarily lowered prices.

3. Labor-Intensive Production & Processing
Lamb farming requires significant labor for breeding, raising, and processing. High labor needs increase production costs and market prices.

4. Shifting Demand Patterns
Increasing global demand for lamb, particularly in export markets, has driven prices higher, especially for premium cuts.

5. Trade Regulations & Anti-Dumping Measures
Export restrictions and anti-dumping rules in some countries affect the global supply chain. These measures influence lamb prices.

Which Variables Impact Lamb Prices?

• Climate-driven production variability
• Oversupply and inventory levels
• Labor and processing costs
• Consumer demand for premium and export-quality lamb
• Export restrictions and trade policy interventions

Where Does Lamb Come From?

Lamb (Ovis aries) is produced mainly in countries with climates suitable for sheep farming.

Major producers include:

• Australia: Known for its extensive sheep farming industry, particularly in regions like New South Wales and Victoria.
• New Zealand: A significant exporter of lamb, with a focus on grass-fed production systems.
• United States: Lamb production is concentrated in states like Colorado, Texas, and South Dakota.
  
• United Kingdom: Sheep farming is widespread in Wales and Scotland, producing lamb for both domestic consumption and export.

What are the Uses of Lamb?

1. Culinary Applications: Lamb is used in a variety of dishes, including roasts, stews, and grilled cuts.

2. Processed Products: Includes sausages, burgers, and ready-to-eat meals.

3. Export Markets: Significant portions of lamb production are exported to international markets.

4. Cultural and Religious Significance: The Lamb holds cultural importance in various cuisines and religious traditions.

What is the Future Price of Lamb?

Lamb prices are expected to fluctuate in the coming years due to supply limits, shifting demand, and production trends.

In Australia:

• 2025–2026: The national lamb saleyard price is forecast at 802¢ per kilogram, up 4% from the previous year.
• 2026: Prices could reach A$11.50 per kilogram, driven by strong demand and reduced supply.
• 2028: Prices may fall by 35% to 40% because of oversupply and labor shortages

While in the United States:

• U.S. lamb production may decline from 140.74 million pounds in 2024 to 130.89 million pounds by 2028. Lower production could put upward pressure on prices.

Lamb prices in both Australia and the United States are expected to rise moderately over the next five years. In Australia, prices are expected to increase from A$11 per kilogram in 2025 to approximately A$12.50 per kilogram in 2030. In the United States, prices are expected to remain stable with seasonal changes.